Redakteur ZPI

Economic growth is slowing, inflation is low and the labour market remains robust. The central banks remain unchanged in their loose monetary policy until the economic data demands new steps. The quarterly reports were mostly positive and exceeded the low expectations. Stock valuations are elevated in the US and slightly above the long-term average. They …

The US bond market shot up due to surprisingly poor economic data and led to an inverse US yield curve (long bond yields lower than short bonds). An inverse US interest rate curve has historically led to a recession in the US 15 months later. However, there were exceptions where a recession did not occur. …

China worries about the job market and wants to boost the economy with fiscal impulses. Europe is weakening more than expected in the wake of China and Italy is even falling into recession. The US is doing relatively well with a continued robust labour market and good consumer sentiment. The FED confirms that, taking into …

Last year was one of the most challenging in the financial markets since the last financial crisis. After a friendly start, a first correction already followed in February. The recovery from end of March until May led to a more optimistic investors-sentiment as this move was supported by good economic and company figures. In June …

Debt has risen sharply over the last 10 years, both in states, companies and private households. The higher level of debt has generally worsened the quality of borrowers and defaults will increase with rising interest rates. The bond markets are massively overpriced due to the various actions of central banks. This was understandable while there …

The judgment of the financial markets is obvious. The US economy will win the trade war. The US stock market rises in August 3% while Europe falls 3.5% and China 5%. The mining companies face a decline by 10%, signalling a future slowdown in commodity demand and thus a slowdown in economic growth. All of …