Economic growth is slowing, inflation is low and the labour market remains robust. The central banks remain unchanged in their loose monetary policy until the economic data demands new steps. The quarterly reports were mostly positive and exceeded the low expectations. Stock valuations are elevated in the US and slightly above the long-term average. They …
The US bond market shot up due to surprisingly poor economic data and led to an inverse US yield curve (long bond yields lower than short bonds). An inverse US interest rate curve has historically led to a recession in the US 15 months later. However, there were exceptions where a recession did not occur. …
China worries about the job market and wants to boost the economy with fiscal impulses. Europe is weakening more than expected in the wake of China and Italy is even falling into recession. The US is doing relatively well with a continued robust labour market and good consumer sentiment. The FED confirms that, taking into …
Last year was one of the most challenging in the financial markets since the last financial crisis. After a friendly start, a first correction already followed in February. The recovery from end of March until May led to a more optimistic investors-sentiment as this move was supported by good economic and company figures. In June …
Strategic Income Fund invests mainly into income-oriented assets in the US and international markets as well. Last year the big challenge was the FED policy of increasing interest rates. In February our investment strategy turned to risk off. We realized a little loss and stayed invested secure in the money market with the US-Dollars paying …
Debt has risen sharply over the last 10 years, both in states, companies and private households. The higher level of debt has generally worsened the quality of borrowers and defaults will increase with rising interest rates. The bond markets are massively overpriced due to the various actions of central banks. This was understandable while there …
Current financial market reports make investors either euphoric or anxious. Where does the journey go from here? We don’t know! Last week the DAX Index lost 3,3 % and closed below the important 12.000 point support line. Except the US equity markets more or less all other indices performed negative this year. Although the move …
The judgment of the financial markets is obvious. The US economy will win the trade war. The US stock market rises in August 3% while Europe falls 3.5% and China 5%. The mining companies face a decline by 10%, signalling a future slowdown in commodity demand and thus a slowdown in economic growth. All of …
Strategic Income Fund with solid development 2018 YtD – 1,86 % 2017 +4,66% 2016 +2,63% Since the mid-February sell-signal we invested our liquidity into the money market with a focus on capital preservation and a modest income stream. This year stock markets have been very volatile and we saw mainly FAANG stocks (Facebook, …
Particular caution is required! The global economy continues to grow positively despite regional slowdowns. Rising inflation is within the target of 2%, so that the pragmatic normalization of monetary policy can continue. The unemployment rate is falling and in some places even full employment prevails. Corporate earnings for 2018 are expected to grow at a …